The global economy has been resilient. At least, so far

The Middle East conflict caused a major disruption to global oil supplies, pushing Brent crude prices close to $120 per barrel, about two-thirds higher than pre-conflict levels. Despite this, global growth is forecasted at 2.6% in 2026, similar to January expectations, but inflation and borrowing costs have risen. Financial markets initially retreated but rebounded strongly after the April ceasefire, though recovery has been uneven, especially for energy-importing countries dependent on Middle Eastern supplies.