Can abstaining voters sway Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?

Some 33.4 million Brazilian voters, or 21 percent of the electorate, skipped the October 4 first round—the highest abstention rate in a general election since 1998. Larissa Campelo, a 30-year-old mother who backed Aécio Neves in 2014 and Fernando Haddad in 2018, is boycotting the vote as a protest, saying neither candidate is qualified enough to earn her support. Left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s run-off. Bolsonaro took 47 percent of first-round votes to Lula’s 45 percent, a margin of 2.2 million ballots, making abstaining voters a potential factor in the result.