Can Tajikistan’s economic boom survive its debt gamble? | Business and Economy | Al Jazeera

Tajikistan’s GDP grew by 8.2% in the first half of 2026, supported by an 18.4% increase in fixed-capital investments and a $300 million grant from the World Bank for the Rogun hydropower project. Despite strong growth figures, the economy remains vulnerable due to reliance on remittances, a narrow export base, and politicized state companies, leading to increasing debt levels that are hard to service. The World Bank still considers Tajikistan at high risk of debt distress, leaving little room for financial mistakes or external shocks.