Forces shaping Global South fourth quarter outlook

The September summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump eased some immediate China-US trade tensions but did not resolve the dispute: both sides extended their arrangement to January 10, 2027, and recommended preferential tariff treatment for roughly $30 billion each in non-sensitive goods. Global South economies enter the fourth quarter facing three forces: lower tariffs on selected goods, an unresolved energy shock and a strengthening El Niño. After the February 28 US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude rose above $120 a barrel, while the IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent and put sub-Saharan Africa’s growth at 4.3 percent. Earlier in the year, sub-Saharan governments recorded their strongest Eurobond issuance in more than a decade, led by Kenya’s $2.25 billion deal.