Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but polls have let them down before

As the US midterms approach, Democrats hope to take control of the House and make gains in the Senate, buoyed by favourable polls, Donald Trump’s unpopularity and public frustration over the cost of living. Recent surveys show a tie in the South Carolina Senate race and Democrats leading in Texas, Kansas and Maine. But polls have repeatedly missed the mark, including ahead of Trump’s presidential victories in 2016 and 2024 and in recent Democratic primaries in Michigan and Wisconsin. Clifford Young of Ipsos Public Affairs says declining landline use, screened calls and low participation among some conservative voters make polling harder and could skew models in Democrats’ favour.