Kenya Met Issues El Niño Alert, Warns of Dry Mid-Year Conditions Followed by Flood Risk in Late 2026

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has issued an early alert regarding El Niño, with an 80-82% likelihood of development between June and August 2026, and 90-96% probability of persisting through the end of the year. The event is expected to be moderate to strong. The country will experience below-average rainfall in most parts during mid-year, but enhanced rainfall is forecast from October to December, raising the risk of flooding.