Climate and migration in Senegal: Could Podor, Sédhiou and Kolda become new destinations?

A study by researchers from Penn State, Université Paris Cité and IPAR estimates that migration in Senegal could increase by nearly 50% when people’s long-term aspirations are included. Using the MIDAS model, the researchers simulated the effects of droughts and rising sea levels on population movements over 25 years. Individual incomes could rise by 40% to 250% after a climate shock in the scenarios examined, with education and access to mobility shaping people’s ability to adapt. Podor, Sédhiou, Kolda and Nio du Rip could form an “inland crescent” that receives rural or coastal populations exposed to climate risks.